Tuesday, September 30, 2008

On Investing....What's It All Gonna Mean, Anyway?

It used to be if the stock market went down, the liquidated capital had to go somewhere, usually into real estate. If housing and commercial property values started softening, investors sought bonds to even out the trough. And, if corporate bonds or munis took a turn south, there was always foreign exchange, or another sector in the stock market to re-evaluate and hedge. But, today, I wonder "Where's the safe quarter"?

A functional central bank, something which the US didn't have in 1929, and the global nature of capital markets should prevent the US economy from taking a nose dive into the abyss. But the question remains as to where the safe play for investments remains....is it simply under the mattress for a while?

I'd be interested in your thoughts. Longitude generally isn't engaged on investment topics but the swirl of the markets has us talking, and thinking. Clearly, there will be shake out in the payments landscape from this realignment of organizations...I mean, can Lehman really continue to 'prefer American Express' if they're owned by Bank of America? But, there are more profound fundamentals I think we'll see changing over the next several months. What's your view?

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Change: We're All For It....As Long As It's Familar!

My son, who is doing Masters work at the Johns Hopkins SAIS School, alerted me to a Brookings Institute forum this week on the "Future of Consumer Payments: a Discussion on Business and Public Policy" (www.brookings.edu/events/2008/0916 comsumer.aspx). Some really smart people were scheduled to speak including Ken Chenault of American Express, Dick Schmalensee of the Sloan Institute and Vijay D’Silva of McKinsey. I would have loved to attend and hear these and other speakers comment on what they see as 'the future' for our industry.

More provacativley, however, I was reminded of how many of these types of forums I've attended over the years seldom include the real game changing agents. Somehow, the Elon Musk's of the industry, who built a huge consumer data base of online transactors by offerring ‘free online checking’ via x.com using what at the time seemed like obscene amounts VC money, don't get the invitation to share their visions. They're just too scary and represent too much change to be included in the intelectual excercise.

Musk wasn't a banking maverick; he was just a maverick who believed he had a better idea about moving value between two parties. If you don't know the story, Musk went on to convert this huge new community of consumers into the world of PayPal, today the single largest global base of monetary transfer. As PayPal came on stream, the traditional networks (Amex, Visa, etc) and their constiuent institutions comforted themselves by repeating “Its only auctions, its only auctions” without acknowleging the true reality of PayPal's ability to seriously change the rules of the game down the road. If, or perhaps more aptly when, PayPal decides to "go retail" it could well represent a massive C-change in the retail payments landscape and potentially shift the control of payments question back toward the payee.

In the end, Chenault and company are admitedly smart guys. But, its also in their personal self interest to not change too much or too fast. Otherwise, they risk disenfranchising themselves and their networks. We all like change, if its something we’re familiar with!

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Coach or Crony?

University psychologist and researcher Carol Dweck says the “key to success in life is to adopt a ‘growth’ mindset as opposed to a ‘fixed’ one.'” She goes on to discuss results from her research on “mindsets”: “People with a fixed mindset believe their basic qualities are carved in stone, so they are concerned about making their abilities look good. Those with a growth mindset believe their basic abilities can be cultivated through dedication and education. They are more concerned about stretching themselves.”

A “crony” is a good-ole-boy (or girl) who supports another person’s status quo. Cronies don’t challenge each other. They encourage the old, safe ways and with flattery attempt to make the fixed traits of their associates look good. A coach doesn’t care if you look good or not. The effective coach strives to disrupt the status quo of those he or she works with and make them stretch. The crony makes you wary of challenges, especially if the learning involves the risk of failure. The good coach orients you toward learning and the changes that are necessary to get you from where you are to where you say you want to be, even if that involves the risk of things looking worse before they get better.

Be wary when choosing a coach who’s main technique is that of cheering and excessive praise. There is nothing wrong with encouragement and when used at the proper time, can help to solidify gains and progress. But first we need to make the changes and do the hard work of moving out of old comfort zones. A coach worth hiring knows how to work with growth minded individuals and show them the strategies of change. Then that same coach also knows how to help you maintain the changes you took the risks to make.

Interview the coach you are considering. Determine if that coach uses a fixed mindset or a growth mindset. An easy test is to know if the coach praises effort, strategy and improvement in the people he or she works with or intelligence and talent. Beware the coach who places emphasis on the later because those aspects of a person are fixed.

Paul W. Anderson,

BulletProofCoach.com

Monday, September 8, 2008

Farewell Harley Kid

Our hearts are heavy with the news of the recent passing of Chuck Russell, former CEO of Visa. Chuck was a man of character and integrity, who put the long term interests of the association and its constiuents ahead of his own. Chuck had the gifted soft touch of leadership -- firm but poignant direction and wisdom that only comes with experience. He was a man led by common sense and never relenquished his vision of the great things that could be accomplished if those closest to the customer, the problem or the opportunity were sufficiently empowered. Our sincere condolences go out to his family. He will be remembered always.